Thinking, Fast And Slow

Jan 29, 2022 · 52 min read ·

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Table of Contents

I Purpose
II Expectations
III Results
IV Works Cited
V Notes

I Purpose

I've owned this book for a while and it's referenced a lot by people in general conversation (most of which I expect haven't read it either), but a conversation I recently had made me think now may be the time to try and tackle this.

II Expectations

In general I get the concept, that our brain has 2 basic modes. One where we're not paying that much attention, and gliding through, and one where we focus and exert a lot of energy paying close attention to what people talk about. I think the thing I'm curious about is first the mechanics of such, the pros/cons of each type of thinking, and hopefully, some sort of practical information that I could leverage.

I want to ammend this section- I'm through the first chapter. This book describes very much the 2 minds from the Inner Game of Tennis, but these were written 35 years apart. It feels like there should be some sort of connection here- I'd be curious to find it out.

III Results

IV Works Cited

Show Works Cited

IV Introduction

Cohen, Jacob. Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1969).
Gigerenzer, Gerd. "How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear," European Review of Social Psychology 2 (1991): 83-115.
Gigerenzer, Gerd. "Personal Reflections on Theory and Psychology," Theory & Psychology 20 (2010): 733-43.
Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. "On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions," Psychological Review 103 (1996): 582-91.
Reyna, Valerie F and Lloyd, Farrell J. "Physician Decision-Making and Cardiac Risk: Effects of Knowledge, Risk Perception, Risk Tolerance and Fuzzy-Processing," Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 12 (2006): 179-95.
Epley, Nicholas and Gilovich, Thomas. "The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Hueristic," Psychological Science 17 (2006): 311-18.
Schwartz, Norbert et al. "Ease of Retrieval of Information: Another Look at the Availability Heuristic," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 61 (1991): 195-202.
Weber, Elke U et al. "Asymmeteric Discounting in Intertemporal Choice," Psychological Science 18 (2007): 516-23.
Loewenstein, George F et al. "Risk as Feelings," Psychological Bulletin 127 (2001): 267-86.
Foer, Joshua. Moonwalking with Einstein: The Art and Science of Remembering (New York: Penguin Press, 2011).
Ericsson, K Anders et al, eds. The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Klein, Gary A. Sources of Power (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1999).
Simon, Herbert A. "What Is an Explanation of Behavior?" Psychological Science 3 (1992): 150-61.

IV 1: The Characters of the Story

Evans, Jonathan St B T and Frankish, Keith, eds. In Two Minds: Dual Processes and Beyond (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009)
Evans, Jonathan St B T. "Dual-Processing Accounts of Reasoning, Judgement, and Social Cognition," Annual Review of Psychology 59 (2008): 255-78.
Stanovich, Keith E and West, Richard F. "Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate," Behavioral and Brain Sciences 23 (2000): 645-65.
Wegner, Daniel M. The Illusion of Conscious Will (Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books, 2003)
Lavie, Nilli. "Attention, Distraction and Cognitive Control Under Load," Current Directions in Psychological Science 19 (2010): 143-48.
Hare, Robert D. Without Conscience: The Disturbing World of the Psychopaths Among Us (New York: Guilford Press, 1999)
Babiak, Paul and Hare, Robert D. Snakes in Suits: When Psychopaths Go to Work (New York: Harper, 2007)
Baddeley, Alan D. "Working Memory: Looking Back and Looking Forward," Nature Reviews: Neuroscience 4 (2003): 829-38.
Baddeley, Alan D. Your Memory: A User's Guide (New York: Firefly Books, 2004)

IV 2: Attention and Effort

Kahneman, Daniel. Attention and Effort (1973)
Just, Marcel A and Carpenter, Patricia A. "A Capacity Theory of Comprehension: Individual Differences in Working Memory," Psychological Review 99 (1992): 122-49.
Just, Marcel et al. "Neuroindices of Cognitive Workload: Neuroimaging, Pupillometric and Event-Related Potential Studies of Brain Work," Theoretical Issues in Ergonomics Science 4 (2003): 56-88.
Vergauwe, Evie et al. "Do Mental Processes Share a Domain-General Resource?" Psychological Science 21 (2010): 384-90.
Boehler, Carsten N et al. "Task-Load-Dependent Activation of Dopaminergic Midbrain Areas in the Absence of Reward," Journal of Neuroscience 31 (2011): 4955-61.
Hess, Eckhard H. "Attitude and Pupil Size," Scientific American 212 (1965): 46-54
Kahneman, Daniel et al. "Pupillary, Heart Rate, and Skin Resistance Changes During a Mental Task," Journal of Experimental Psychology 79 (1969): 164-67.
Kahneman, Daniel, Beatty, Jackson, and Pollack Irwin. "Perceptual Deficit During a Mental Task," Science 15 (1967): 218-219.
Baddeley, Alan D. Working Memory (New York: Oxford University Press, 1986)
Smith, Michael E, McEvoy, Linda K, Gevins, Alan. "Neurophysiological Indices of Strategy Development and Skill Acquisition," Cognitive Brain Research 7 (1999): 389-404.
Gevins, Alan et al. "High-Resolution EEG mapping of Cortical Activation Related to Working Memory: Effects of Task Difficulty, Type of Processing and Practice," Cerebral Cortex 7 (1997): 374-85.
Ahern, Sylvia K and Beatty, Jackson. "Physiological Signs of Information Processing Vary with Intelligence," Science 205 (1979): 1289-92.
Kool, Wouter et al. "Decision Making and the Avoidance of Cognitive Demand," Journal of Experimental Psychology-General 139 (2010): 665-82.
McGuire, Joseph T and Botvinick, Matthew M. "The Impact of Anticipated Demand on Attention and Behavioral Choice," Effortless Attention, ed Brain Bruya (Cambridge, MA: Bradford Books, 2010): 103-20.
McGuire, Joseph T and Botvinick, Matthew M. "Prefontal Cortex, Cognitive Control, and the Registration of Decision Costs," PNAS 107 (2010): 7922-26.
Laeng, Bruno et al. "Pupillary Stroop Effects," Cognitive Processing 12 (2011): 13-21.
Posner, Michael I and Rothbart, Mary K. "Research on Attention Networks as a Model for the Integration of Psychological Science," Annual Review of Psychology 58 (2007): 1-23.
Duncan, John et al. "A Neural Basis for General Intelligence," Science 219 (2000): 457-60.
Conway, Andrew A, Kane, Michael J and Engle, Randall W. "Working Memory Capacity and Its Relation to General Intelligence," Trends in Cognitive Sciences 7 (2003): 547-52.
Kahneman, Daniel, Ben-Ishai, Rachel, and Lotan, Michael. "Relation of a Test of Attention to Road Accidents," Journal of Applied Psychology 58 (1973): 113-15.
Gopher, Daniel. "A Selective Attention Test as a Predictor of Success in Flight Training," Human Factors 24 (1982): 173-83.

IV 3: The Lazy Controller

Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly. Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience (New York: Harper, 1990)
Shiv, Baba and Fedorikhin, Alexander. "Heart and Mind in Conflict: The Interplaay of Affect and Cognition in Consumer Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research 26 (1999): 278-92.
Friese, Malte, Hofmann, Wilhelm and Wanke, Michaela. "When Impulses Take Over: Moderated Predictive Validity of Implicit and Explicit Attitude Measures in PRedicting Food Choice and Consumption Behavior," British Journal of Social Psychology 47 (2008): 397-419.
Gilbert, Daniel T. "How Mental Systems Believe," American Psychologist 46 (1991): 107-19.
Macrae, C Neil and Bodenhausen, Galen V. "Social Cognition: Thinking Categorically about Others," Annual Review of Psychology 51 (2000): 93-120.
Beilock, Sian L and Carr, Thomas H. "When High-Powered People Fail: Working Memory and Choking Unser Pressure in Math," Psychological Science 16 (2005): 101-105.
Hagger, Martin S et al. "Ego Depletion and the Strength Model of Self-Control: A Meta-Analysis," Psychological Bulletin 136 (2010): 495-525.
Muraven, Mark and Slessareva, Elisaveta. "Mechanisms of Self-Control Failure: Motivation and Limited Resources," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 29 (2003): 894-906.
Muraven, Mark, Tice, Dianne M, and Baumeister, Roy F. "Self-Control as a Limited Resource: Regulatory Depletion Patterns," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 74 (1998): 774-89.
Gailliot, Matthew T et al. "Self-Control Relies on Glucose as a Limited Energy Souce: Willpower Is More Than a Metaphor," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 92 (2007): 325-36,
Gailliot, Matthew T and Baumeister, Roy F. "The Psysiology of Willpower: Linking Blood Glucose to Self-Control," Personality and Social Psychology Review 11 (2007): 303-27.
Danziger, Shai, Levav, Jonathan, and Avnaim-Pesso, Liora. "Extraneous Factors in Judicial Decisions," PNAS 108 (2011): 6889-92.
Frederick, Shane. "Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making," Journal of Economic Perspectives 19 (2005): 25-42.
Stanovich, Keith E. Rationality and the Reflective Mind (New York: Oxford University Press, 2011)
Mischel, Walter and Ebbesen, Ebbe B. "Attention in Delay of Gratification," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 16 (1970): 329-37.
Eigsti, Inge-Maria et al. "Predicting Cognitive Control from Preschool to Late Adolescence and Young Adulthood," Psychological Science 17 (2006): 478-84.
Mischel, Walter. "Processes in Delay Gratification," Advances in Experimental Social Psychology VOl 7, ed Leonard Berkowitz (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1974): 249-92.
Mischel, Walter, Shoda, Yuchi, and Rodriguez, Monica L. "Delay of Gratification in Children," Science 244 (1989): 933-38.
Rueda, M Rosario et al. "Training, Maturation, and Genetic Influences on the Development of Executive Attention," PNAS 102 (2005): 14931-36.
Toplak, Maggie E, West, Richard F and Stanovich, Keith E. "The Cognitive Reflection Test as a Predictor of Performance on Heuristics-and-Biases Tasks," Memory & Cognition (in press)

IV 4: The Associative Machine

Morewedge, Carey K and Kahneman, Daniel. "Associative Process in Intuitive Judgement," Trends in Cognitive Sciences 14 (2010): 435-40.
Niedenthal, Paul M. "Embodying Emotion," Science 316 (2007): 1002-1005.
Bargh, John A Chen, Mark and Burrows, Laura. "Automaticity of Social Behavior: Direct Effects of Trait Construct and Stereotype Activation on Action," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 71 (1996): 230-44.
Mussweiler, Thomas. "Doing Is for Thinking! Stereotype Activation by Stereotypic Movements," Psychological Science 17 (2006): 17-21.
Strack, Fritz, Martin, Leonard L and Stepper, Sabine. "Inhibitiing and Facilitating Conditions of the Human Smile: A Nonobtrusive Test of the Facial Feedback Hypothesis," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54 (1988): 768-77.
Dimberg, Ulf, Thunberg, Monika and Grunedal, Sara. "Facial Reactions to Emotional Stimuli: Automatically Controlled Emotional Responses," Cognition and Emotion 16 (2002): 449-71.
Wells, Gary L and Petty, Richard E. "The Effects of Overt Head Movements on Persuasion: Compatibility and Incompatibility of Responses," Basic and Applied Social Psychology 1 (1980): 219-30.
Berger, Jonah, Meredith, Marc and Wheeler, S Christian. "Contectual Priming: Where People Vote Affects How They Vote," PNAS 105 (2008): 8846-49.
Vohs, Kathleen D. "The Psychological Consequences of Money," Science 314 (2006): 1154-56.
Greenberg, Jeff et al. "Evidence for Terror Management Theory II: The Effect of Mortality Salience on Reactions to Those Who Threaten or Bolster the Cultural Worldview," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 58 (1990): 308-18.
Shong, Chen-Bo and Liljenquist, Katie. "Washing Away Your Sins: Threatened Morality and Physical Cleansing," Science 313 (2006): 1451-52.
Lee, Spike and Schwarz, Norbert. "Dirty Hands and Dirty Mouths: Embodiment of the Moral-Purity Metaphor Is Specific to the Motor Modality Involved in Moral Transgression," Psychological Science 21 (2010): 1423-25.
Bateson, Melissa, Nettle, Daniel and Roberts, Gilbert, "Cues of Being Watched Enhance Cooperation in a Real-World Setting," Biology Letters 2 (2006): 412-14.
Wilson, Timothy. Strangers to Ourselves (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2002)

IV 5: Cognitive Ease

Alter, Adam L and Oppenheimer, Daniel M. "Uniting the Tribes of Fluency to Form a Metacogitive Nation," Personality and Social Psychology Review 13 (2009): 219-35.
Jacoby, Larry L, Kelley, Colleen, Brown, Judith and Jasechko, Jennifer. "Becoming Famous Overnight: Limits on the Ability to Avoid Inconscious Influences of the Past," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 56 (1989): 326-38.
Whittlesea, Bruce W A, Jacoby, Larry L and Girard, Krista. "Illusions of Immediate Memory: Evidence of an Attributional Basis for Feelings of Familiarity and Perceptual Quality," Journal of Memory and Language 29 (1990): 716-32.
Begg, Ian, Armour, Victoria and Kerr, Therese. "On Believing What We Remember," Canadian Journal of Behavioural Science 17 (1985): 199-214.
Oppenheimer, Daniel M. "Consequences of Erudite Vernacular Utilized Irrespective of Necessity: Problems with Using Long Words Needlessly," Applied Cognitive Psychology 20 (2006): 139-56.
Mc Glone, Matthew S and Tofighbakhsh, Jessica. "Birds of a Feather Flock Conjointly(?): Rhyme as Reason in Aphorisms," Psychological Science 11 (2000): 424-28.
Shah, Anuj K, and Oppenheimer, Daniel M. "Easy Does It: The Role of Fluency in Cue Weighting," Judgement and Decision Making Journal 2 (2007): 371-79.
Atler, Adam L, Oppenheimer, Daniel M, Epley, Nicholas and Eyre, Rebecca. "Overcoming Intuition: Metacognitive Difficulty Activates Analytic Reasoning," Journal of Experimental Psychology-General 136 (2007): 569-76.
Winkielman, Piotr and Cacioppo, John T. "Mind at Ease Puts a Smile on the Face: Psychophysiological Evidence That Processing Facilitation Increases Positive Affect," Journal Of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2001): 989-1000.
Alter, Adam L and Oppenheimer, Daniel M. "Predicting Short-Term Stock Fluctuations by Using Processing Fluency," PNAS 103 (2006).
Cooper, Michael J, Dimitrov, Orline and Rau, P Raghavendra. "A Rose.com by Any Other Name," Journal of Finance 56 (2001): 2371-88.
Pense, Pascal. "Nomen Est Omen: How Company Names Influence Short and Long-Run Stock Market Performance," Social Science Research Network Working Paper, September 2006.
Zajonc, Robert B. "Attitudinal Effects of Mere Exposure," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 9 (1968): 1-27.
Zajonc, Robert B and Rajecki, D W. "Exposure and Affect: A Field Experiment," Psychonomic Science 17 (1969): 216-17.
Monahan, Jennifer L, Murphy, Sheila T and Zajonc, Robert B. "Subliminal Mere Exposure: Specific, General, and Diffuse Effects," Psychological Science 11 (2000): 462-66.
Rajecki, D W. "Effects of Prenatal Exposure to Auditory or Visual Stimulation on Postnatal Distress Vocalizations in Chicks," Behavioral Biology 11 (1974): 525-36.
Zajonc, Rober B. "Mere Exposure: A Gateway to the Subliminal," Current Directions in Psychological Science 10 (2001): 227.
Bolte, Annette, Goschke, Thomas and Kohl, Julius. "Emotion and Intuition: Effects of Positive and Negative Mood on Implicit Judgmnents of Semantic Coherence," Psychological Science 14 (2003): 416-21.
Topolinski, Sascha and Sttrack, Fritz. "The Architecture of Intuition: Fluency and Affect Determine Intuitive Judgments of Semantic and Visual Coherence and Judgments of Grammaticality in Artificial Grammar Learning," Journal of Experimental Psychology-General 138 (2009): 39-63.
Fredrickson, Barbara. Positivity: Groundbreaking Research Reveals How to Embrace the Hidden Strength of Positive Emotions, Overcome Negativity, and Thrive (New York: Random House, 2009)
Forgas, Joseph P and East, Rebekah. "On Being Happy and Gullibel: Mood Effects on Skepticism and the Detection of Deception," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 44 (2008): 1362-67.
Topolinski, Sascha et al. "The Face of Fluency: Semantic Coherence Automatically Elicits a Specific Pattern of Facial Muscle Reactions," Cognition and Emotion 23 (2009): 260-71.
Topolinski, Sascha and Strack, Fritz. "The Analysis of Intuition: Processing Fluency and Affect in Judgements of Semantic Coherence, Cognition and Emotion 23 (2009): 1465-1503.

IV 6: Norms, Surprises, and Causes

Kahneman, Daniel and Miller, Dale T. "Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives," Psychological Review 93 (1986): 136-53.
Van Berkum, Jos J A. "Understanding Sentences in Context: What Brain Waves Can Tell Us," Current Directions in Psychological Science 17 (2008): 376-80.
Hassin, Ran R, Bargh, John A and Uleman, James S. "Spontaneous Causal Inferences," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 38 (2002): 515-22.
Michotte, Albert. The Perception of Causality (Andover, MA: Methuen, 1963).
Leslie, Alan M and Keeble, Stephanie. "Do Six-Month-Old Infants Perceive Causality?" Cognition 25 (1987): 265-88.
Heider, Fritz and Simmel, Mary-Ann. "An Experimental Study of Apparent Behavior," Americal Journal of Psychology 13 (1944): 243-59.
Bloom, Paul. "Is God an Accident?" Atlantic, December 2005

IV 7: A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions

Gilbert, Daniel T, Krull, Douglas S and Malone, Patrick S. "Unbelieving the Unbelievable: Some Problems in the Rejections of False Information," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 59 (1990): 601-13.
Asch, Solomon E. "Forming Impressions of Personality," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 41 (1946): 258-90.
Surowiecki, James. The Wisdom of Crowds (New York: Anchor Books, 2005)
Brenner, Lyle A, Koehler, Derek J and Tversksy, Amos. "On the Evaluation of One-Sided Evidence," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 9 (1996): 59-70.

IV 8: How Judgments Happen

Todorov, Alexander, Baron, Sean G and Oosterhof, Nikolaas N. "Evaluating Face Trustworthiness: A Model-Based Approach," _Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience- 3 (2008): 119-27.
Todorov, Alexander, Said, Chris P, Engell, Andrew D, and Oosterhof, Nikolaas N. "Understanding Evaluation of Faces on Social Dimensions," Trends in Cognitive Sciences 12 (2008): 455-60.
Todorov, Alexander, Pakrashi, Manish, and Oosterhof, Nikolaas N. "Evaluating Faces on Trustworthiness After Minimal Time Exposure," Social Cognition 27 (2009): 813-33.
Todorov, Alexander et al."Inference of Competence from Faces Predict Election Outcomes," Science 308 (2005): 1623-26.
Ballew, Charles C and Todorov, Alexander. "Predicting Political Elections from Rapid and Unreflective Face Judgments," PNAS 104 (2007): 17948-53.
Olivola, Chrisopher Y and Todorov, Alexander. "Elected 100 Milliseconds: Appearance-Based Trait Inferences and Voting," Journal of Nonverbal Behavior 34 (2010): 83-110.
Lenz, Gabriel and Lawson, Chappell. "Looking the Part: Television Leads Less Informed Citizens to Vote Based on Candidates' Appearance," American Journal of Political Science (forthcoming).
Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment," Psychological Review 90 (1983): 293-315.
Desvousges, William H et al. "Measuring Natual Resource Damages with Contingent Valuation: Tests of Validity and Reliability," Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment, ed Jerry A Hausman (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1993): 91-159.
Stevens, Stanley S. Psychophysics: Introductionto Its Perceptual, Neural, and Social Prospect (New York: Wiley, 1975)
Seidenberg, Mark S and Tanenhaus, Michael K. "Orthographic Effects on Rhyme Monitoring," Journal of Experimental Psychology-Human Learning and Memory 5 (1979): 546-54.
Glucksberg, Sam, Gildea, Patricia and Bookin, Howard G. "On Understanding Nonliteral Speech: Can People Ignroe Metaphors?" Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 21 (1982): 85-98.

IV 9: Answering an Easier Question

Gigerenzer, Gerd, Todd, Peter M and the ABC Research Group. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart (New York: Oxford University Press, 1999).
Oppenheimer, Daniel M. "Not So Fast! (and Not So Frugal!): Rethinking the Recognition Heuristic," Cognition 90 (2003): B1-B9.
Strack, Fritz, Martin, Leonard L and Schwarz, Norbert. "Priming and Communication: Social Determinants of Information Use in Judgments of Life Satisfaction," European Journal of Social Psychology 18 (1988): 429-42.
Schewarz, Norbert, Strack, Fritz and Mai, Hans-Peter. "Assimilation and Contrast Effects in Part-Whole Question Sequences: A Conversational Logic Analysis," Public Opinion Quarterly 55 (1991): 3-23.
Finucane, Melissa L et al. "The Affect Heuristic in Judgments of Risks and Benefits," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 13 (2000): 1-17.

IV 10: The Law of Small Numbers

Wainer, Howard and Zwerling, Harris L. "Evidence That Smaller Schools Do Not Improve Student Achievement," Phi Delta Kappan 88 (2006): 300-303.
Gelman, Andrew and Nolan, Deborah. Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002)
Cohen, Jacob. "The Statistical Power of Abnormal-Social Psychological Research: A Review," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 65 (1962): 145-53.
Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers," Psychological Bulletin 76 (1971): 105-10.
Feller, William. Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications (New York: Wiley, 1950)
Gilovich, Thomas, Vallone, Robert, and Tversky, Amos. "The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences," Cognitive Psychology 17 (1985): 295-314.

IV 11: Anchors

Le Boeuf, Robyn and Shafir, Eldar. "The Long and Short of It: Physical Anchoring Effects," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 19 (2006): 393-406.
Epley, Nicholas and Gilovich, Thomas. "Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: Differential Processing of Self-Generated and Experimenter-Provided Anchors," Psychological Science 12 (2001): 391-96.
Mussweiler, Thomas. "The Use of Category and Exemplar Knowledge in the Solution of Anchoring Tasks," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000): 1038-52.
Jacowitz, Karen E and Kahneman, Daniel. "Measures of Anchoring in Estimation Tasks," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 21 (1995): 1161-66.
Northcraft, Gregory B and Neale, Margaret A. "Experts, Amateurs, and Real Estate: An Anchoring-and-Adjustment Perspective on Property Pricing Decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39 (1987): 84-97.
Englich, Birte, Mussweiler, Thomas, and Strack, Fritz. "Playing Dice with Criminal Sentences: The Influence of Irrelevant Anchors on Experts' Judicial Decision Making," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 32 (2006): 188-200.
Wansink, Brian, Kent, Robert J and Hoch, Stephen J. "An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Purchase Quantity Decisions," Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1998): 71-81.
Galinsky, Adam D and Mussweiler, Thomas. "First Offers as Anchors: The Role of Perspecitve-Taking and Negotiator Focus," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 81 (2001): 657-69
Pogarsky, Greg and Babcock, Linda. "Damage Caps, Motivated Anchoring, and Bargaining Impasse," Journal of Legal Studies 30 (2001): 143-59.
Gutherie, Chris, Rachlinski, Jeffrey J and Wistrich, Andrew J. "Judging by Heuristic-Cognitive Illusions in Judicial Decision Making," Judicature 86 (2002): 44-50

IV 12: The Science of Availability

Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability," Cognitive Psychology 5 (1973): 207-32.
Ross, Michael and Sicoly, Fiore. "Egocentric Biases in Availability and Attribution," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37 (1979): 322-36.
Stepper, Sabine and Strack, Fritz. "Proprioceptive Determinants of Emotional and Nonemotional Feelings," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 64 (1993): 211-20.
Greifender, Rainer, Bless, Herbert, Pham, Michel T. "When Do People Rely on Affective and Cognitive Feelings in Judgment? A Review," Personality and SOcial Psychology Review 15 (2011): 107-41.
Rotlinman, Alexander and Schwarz, Norbert. "Constructing Perceptions of Vulnerability: Personal Relevance and the Use of Experimental Information in Health Judgments," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 24 (1998): 1053-64.
Greifender, Ranier and Bless, Herbert. "Relying on Accessible Content Versus Accessibility Experiences: The Case of Processing Capacity," Social Cognition 25 (2007): 853-81.
Ruder, Markus and Bless, Herbert. "Mood and the Reliance on the Ease of Retrieval Heuristic," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85 (2003): 20-32.
Greifeneder, Ranier and Bless, Herbert. "Depression and Reliance on Ease-of-Retrieval Experiences," European Journal of Social Psychology 38 (2008): 213-30.
Ofir, Chezy et al. "Memory-Based Store Price Judgments: The Role of Knowledge and Shopping Experience," Journal of Retailing 84 (2008): 414-23.
Caruso, Eugene M. "Use of Experimental Retrieval Ease in Self and SocialJudgments," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 44 (2008): 148-55.
Keller, Johannes and Bless, Herbert. "Predicting Future Affective States: How Ease of Retrieval and Faith in Intuition Moderate the Impact of Activated Content," European Journal of Social Psychology 38 (2008): 1-10.
Weick, Mario and Guinote, Ana. "When Subjective Experiences Matter: Power Increases Reliance on the Ease of Retrieval," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 94 (2008). 956-70.

IV 13: Availability, Emotion, and Risk

Damasio, Antonio R. _Decartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain (New York: Putnam, 1994)
Damasio, Antonio R. "The Somatic Marker Hypothesis and the Possible Functions of the Prefrontal Cortex," Philosophical Transactions: Biological Sciences 351 (1996): 141-20.
Finucane et al. "The Affect Hueristic in Judgments of Risk and Benefitis."
Slovic, Paul, Finucane, Peters, Ellen and MacGregor, Donald G. "The Affect Heuristic."
Glovich, Thomas, Griffin, Dale, Kahneman, Daniel, eds. Heuristics and Biases (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002): 397-420.
Slovic, Paul, Finucane, Melissa, Peters, Ellen and MacGregor, Donald G. "Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts About Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality," Risk Analysis 24 (2004): 1-12.
Slovic, Paul. "Trust, Emotion, Sex, Politics, and Science: Surveying the Risk-Assessment Battlefield," Risk Analysis 19 (1999): 6899-701.
Haidt, Jonathan. "The Emotional Dog and It's Rational Tail: A Social Institutionist Approach to Moral Judgment," Psychological Review 108 (2001): 814-34.
Slovic, Paul. The Perception of Risk (Sterling, VA: EarthScan, 2000)
Kuran, Timur and Sunstein, Cass R. "Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation," Stanford Law Review 51 (1999): 683-768.
Slovic, Paul. (Personal communication, May 11,2011) - this was a direct quote, not going to reprint it here.

IV 14: Tom W's Specialty

Bazerman, Max H and Moore, Don A. Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (New York: Wiley, 2008).
Evans, Jonathan St B T. "Heuristic and Analytic Processes in Reasoning," British Journal of Psychology 75 (1984): 451-68.
Schwarz, Norbert et al. "Base Rates, Representativeness, and the Logic of Conversation: The Contextual Relevance of 'Irrelevant' Information," Social Cognition 9 (1991): 67-84.
Alter, Oppenheimer, Epley, and Eyre, "Overcoming Intuition."

IV 15: Linda: Less is More

Tversky, AMos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment," Psychological Review 90 (1983): 293-315.
Gould, Stephen Jay. Bully for Brontosaurus (New York: Norton, 1991).
Hertwig, Ralph and Gigerenzer, Gerd. "The 'Conjunction Fallacy' Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors," Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 12 (1999): 275-305.
Hertwig, Ralph, Benz, Bjoern and Krauss, Stefan. "The Conjunction Fallacy and the Many Meanings of And," Cognition 108 (2008): 740-53.
Mellers, Barbara, Hertwig, Ralph and Kahneman, Daniel. "Do Frequency Representations Eliminate Conjunction Effects? An Exercise in Adversarial Collaboration," Psychological Science 12 (2001): 269-75.

IV 16: Causes Trump Statistics

Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Causal Schemas in Judgments Under Uncertainty," Progress in Social Psychology ed Morris Fishbein (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1980): 49-72.
Nisbett, Richard E and Borgida, Eugene. "Attribution and the Psychology of Prediction," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32 (1975): 932-43.
Darley, John M and Latane, Bibb. "Bystander Intervention in Emergencies: Diffusion of Responsibility," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 8 (1968): 377-83.

IV 17: Regression to the Mean

Bulmer, Michael. Francis Galton: Pioneer of Heredity and Biometry (Baltimore: John Hopkins Univerity Press, 2003)
Wainer, Howard. "The Most Dangerous Equation," American Scientist 95 (2007): 249-56.

IV 18: Taming Intuitive Predictions

none

IV 19: The Illusion of Understanding

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbably (New York: Random House, 2007).
Lewis, Michael. Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game (New York: Norton, 2003).
Weintraub, Seth. "Excite Passed Up Buying Google for $750,000 in 1999," Fortune September 29,2011.
Nisbett, Richard E and Wilson, Timothy D. "Telling More Than We Can Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes," Psychological Review 84 (1977): 231-59.
Fischhoff, Baruch and Beyth, Ruth. "I Knew It Would Happen: Remembered Probabilities of Once Future Things," Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13 (1975): 1-16.
Baron, Jonathan and Hershey, John C. "Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 54 (1988): 569-79.
Kamin, Kim A and Rachlinski, Jeffrey. "Ex Post? Ex Ante: Determining Liability in Hindsight," Law and Human Behavior 19 (1995): 89-104.
Rachlinski, Jeffrey J. "A Positive Psychological Theory of Judging in Hindsight," University of Chicago Law Review 65 (1998): 571-625.
Goldberg, Jeffrey. "Letter from Washington: Woodward vs. Tenet," New Yorker May 21, 2007, 35-38.
Weiner, Tim. Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA (New York: Doubleday, 2007).
"Espionage: Inventing the Dots," Economist November 3, 2007, 100
Tetlock, Phillip E. "Accountability: The Neglected Social Context of Judgment and Choice," Research in Organizational Behavior 7 (1985): 297-332.
Bertrand, Marianne and Schoar, Antoinette. "Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (2007): 1351-1408.
Steiger, James H. The Halo Effect:...and the Eight Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007)
Olk, Paul and Rosenzweig, Phil. "The Halo Effect and the Challenge of Management Inquiry: A Dialog Between Phil Rosenzweig and Paul Olk," Journal of Management Inquiry 19 (2010): 48-54.
Collins, James C and Porras, Jerry I. Built to Last:Successful Habits of Visionary Companies (New York: Harper, 2002)
Seyhun, H Nejat. "The Information Content of Aggregate Insider Trading," Journal of Business 61 (1988): 1-24.
Lakonishok, Josef and Lee, Inmoo. "Are Insider Trades Informative?" Review of Financial Studies 14 (2001): 79-111.
Iqbal, Zahid and Shetty, Shekar. "An Investigation of Causality Between Insider Transactions and Stock Returns," Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 42 (2002): 41-57
Anginer, Deniz, Fisher, Kenneth L and Statman, Meir. "Stockes of Admired Companies and Despised Ones," working paper, 2007.

IV 20: The Illusion of Validity

Barber, Brad M and Odean, Terrance. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance 55 (2002): 773-806.
Barber, Brad M and Odean, Terrance. "Boys Will Be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (2006): 261-92.
Barber, Brad M and Odean, Terrance. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," Review of Financial Studies 21 (2008): 785-818.
Barber, Brad M, Lee, Yi-Tsung, Liu, Yu-Jane and Odean, Terrance. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?" Review of Financial Studies 22 (2009): 609-32.
Bogle, John C. Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor (New York: Wiley, 2000),213.
Grinblatt, Mark and Titman, Sheridan. "The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance 42 (1992): 1977-84
Elton, Edwin J et al. "The Persistence of Risk-Adjusted Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Business 52 (1997):1-33.
Elton, Edwin et al. "Efficience With Costly Information: A Re-interpretation of Evidence from Managed Portfolios," Review of Financial Studies 6 (1993): 1-21.
Tetlock, Philip E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good is It? How Can We Know? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2005), 233.

IV 21: Intuitions vs. Formulas

Meehl, Paul. "Causes and Effects of My Disturbing Little Book," Journal of Personality Assessment 50 (1986): 370-75.
Hoffman, Paul J, Slovic, Paul and Rorer, Leonard G. "An Analysis-of-Variance Model for the Assessment of Configural Cue Utilization in Clinical Judgment," Psychologyical Bulletin 69 (1968): 338-39.
Brown, Paul. "Independent Auditor Judgment in the Evaluation of Internal Audit Functions," Journal of Accounting Research 21 (1983): 444-55.
Shanteau, James. "Psychological Characteristics and Strategies of Expert Decision Makers," Acta Psychologica 68 (1988): 203-15.
Devaul, Richard A et al. "Medical-School Performance of Initially Rejected Students," JAMA 257 (1987): 47-51.
Dana, Jason and Dawes, Robyn M. "Belief in the Unstructured Interview: The Persistence of an Illusion," working paper, Dept of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, 2011.
Grove, William M et al. "Clinical Versus Mechanical Prediction: A Meta-Analysis," Psychological Assessment 12 (2000): 19-30.
Dawes, Robin M. "The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making," American Psychologist 34 (1979): 571-82.
Dana, Jason and Dawes, Robin M. "The Superiority of Simple Alternatives to Regression for Social Science Predictions," Journal of Educational and Behaviorial Statistics 29 (2004): 317-31.
Apgar, Virginia. "A Proposal for a New Method of Evaluaiton of the Newborn Infant," Current Researches in Anesthesia and Analgesia 32 (1953): 260-67.
Finster, Mieczyslaw and Wood, Margaret. "The Apgar Score Has Survived the Test of Time," Anesthesiology 102 (2005): 855-57.
Gawande, Atul. The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right (New York: Metropolitan Books, 2009).
Rozin, Paul. "The Meaning of 'Natural': Process More Important that Content," Psychological Science 16 (2005): 652-58.

IV 22: Expert Intuition: When Can We Trust It?

Simon. "What Is an Explanation of Behavior?"
Myers, David G. Intuition: Its Powers and Perils (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2002): 56.
Epstein, Seymour. "Demystifying Intuition: What It Is, What It Does, How It Does It," Psychologial Inquiry 21 (2010): 295-312.

IV 23: The Outside View

Lovallo, Dan and Kahneman, Daniel. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science 39 (1993): 17-31.
Kahneman, Daniel and Lovallo, Dan. "Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives' Decisions," Harvard Business Review 81 (2003): 56-63.
Nisbett, Richard E and Ross, Lee D. Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980)
Groopman, Jerome. How Doctors Think (New York: Mariner Books, 2008),6.
Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. "Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures," Management Science 12 (1979): 313-27.
Rt. Hon. The Lord Fraser of Carmyllie. "The Holyrood Inquiry, Final Report," September 8, 2004.
Flyvbjerg, Brent, Skamris Holm, Mette K and Buhl, Soren L. "How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?" Journal of the American Planning Association 71 (2005): 131-46.
"2002 Cost vs Value Report," Remodeling, November 20,2002.
Flyvbjerg, Brent. "From Nobel Prize to Project Management: Getting Risks Right," Project Management Journal 37 (2006): 5-15.
Arkes, Hal R, and Blumer, Catherine. "The Psychology of Sunk Cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35 (1985): 124-140
Arkes, Hal R and Ayton, Peter. "The Sunk Cost and Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational Than Lower Animals?" Psychological Bulletin 125 (1998): 591-600.

IV 24: The Engine of Capitalism

Mosing, Miriam A et al. "Genetic and Environmental Influences on Optimism and Its Relationship to Mental and Self-Rated Health: A Study of Aging Twins," Behavior Genetics 39 (2009): 597-604.
Snowdon, David. Aging with Grace: What the Nun Study Teaches Us About Leading Longer, Healthier, and More Meaningful Lives (New York: Bantam Books, 2001).
Fox, Elaine, Ridgewell, Anna and Ashwin, Chris. "Looking on the Bright Side: Biased Attention and the Human Serotonin Transporter Gene," Proceedings of the Royal Society B 276 (2009): 1747-51.
Puri, Manju and Robinson, David T. "Optimism and Economic Choice," Journal of Financial Economics 86 (2007): 71-99.
Busenitz, Lowell W and Barney, Jay B. "Differences Between Entrepreneurs and Managers in Large Organizations: Biases and Heurisitics in Strategic Decision-Making," Journal of Business Venturing 12 (1997): 9-30.
Cassar, Gavin and Craig, Justin. "An Investigation of Hindsight Bias in Nascent Venture Activity," Journal of Business Venturing 24 (2009): 149-64.
Hmieleski, Keith M and Baron, Robert A. "Entrepreneurs' Optimisem and New Venture Performance: A Social Cognitive Perspective," Academy of Management Journal 52 (2009): 473-88.
Haward, Matthew L A, Shepherd, Dean A and Griffin, Dale. "A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship," Management Science 52 (2006): 160-72.
Cooper, Arnold C, Woo, Carolyn Y and Dunkelberg, William C. "Entrepreneurs' Percieved Chances for Success," Journal of Business Venturing 3 (1988): 97-108.
Astebro, Thomas and Elhedhli, Samir. "The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: Forecasting Commercial Success for Early-Stage Ventures," Mangement Science 52 (2006): 395-409.
Astebro, Thomas. "The Return to Independent Invention: Evidence of Unrealistic Optimism, Risk Seeking or Skewness Loving?" Economic Journal 113 (2003): 226-39.
Williams, Eleanor F and Gilovich, Thomas. "Do People Really Believe They Are Above Average?" Journal of Experimental Social Psychology 44 (2008): 1121-28.
Roll, Richard. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," Journal of Business 59 (1986): 197-216, part 1.
Malmendier, Ulrike and Tate, Geoffrey. "Who Makes Acquisitions? CEO Overconfidence and the Market's Reaction," Journal of Financial Economics 89 (2008): 20-43.
Malmendier, Ulrike and Tate, Geoffrey. "Superstart CEOs," Quarterly Journal of Economics 24 (2009): 1593-1638.
Windschitl, Paul D, Rose, Jason P, Stalk-fleet, Michael T and Smith, Andrew R. "Are People Excessive or Judicious in Their Egocentrism? A Modeling Approach to Understanding Bias and Accuracy in People's Optimism," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 95 (2008): 252-73.
Simonsohn, Uri. "eBay's Crowded Evenings: Competition Neglect in Market Entry Decisions," Management Science 56 (2010): 1060-73.
Berner, Eta S and Graber, Mark L. "Overconfidence as a Cause of Diagnostic Error in Medicine," American Journal of Medicine 121 (2008): S2-S23.
Croskerry, Pat and Norman, Geoff. "Overconfidence in Clinical Decision Making," American Journal of Medicine 121 (2008): S24-S29.
Russo, J Edward and Schoemaker, Paul J H. "Managing Overconfidence," Sloan Management Review 33 (1992): 7-17.

IV 25: Bernoulli's Errors

Coombs, Clyde H, Dawes, Robyn M and Tversky, Amos. Mathematical Psychology: An Elementary Introduction (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1970).
Weber, Ernst Heinrich. Weber's Law

IV 26: Prospect Theory

Stevens, Stanley S. "To Honor Fechner and Repeal His Law," Science 133 (1961): 80-86.
Novemsky, Nathan and Kahneman, Daniel. "The Boundaries of Loss Aversion," Journal of Marketing Research 42 (2005): 119-28.
Sokol-Hessner, Peter et al. "Thinking Like a Trader Selectively Reduces Individuals' Loss Aversion,' PNAS 106 (2009): 5035-40.
Rabin, Matthew. "Risk Aversion and Expected-Utility Theory: A Calibration Theorem," Economics 68 (2000): 1281-92.
Rabin, Matthew and Thaler, Richard H. "Abnomalies: Risk Aversion," Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (2001): 219-32.
Bell, David E. "Regret in Decision Making Under Uncertainty," Operations Research 30 (1982): 961-81.
Loomes, Graham and Sugden, Robert. "Regret Theory: An Alternative to Rational Choice Under Uncertainty," Economic Journal 92 (1982): 805-25.
Mellers, Barbara A. "Choice and the Relative Pleasure of Consequences," Psychological Bulletin 126 (2000): 910-24. Mellers, Barbara A, Schwartz, Alan and Ritov, Ilana. "Emotion-Based Choice," Journal of Experimental Psychology-General 128 (1999): 332-45.
Ritov, Ilana. "Probability of Regret: Anticipation of Uncertainty Resolution in Choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 66 (1966): 228-36.

IV 27: The Endowment Effect

Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106 (1991): 1039-61.
Knetsch, Jack. "Preferences and Nonreversibility of Indifference Curves," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 17 (1992): 131-39.
Kruegar, Alan B and Mueller, Andreas. "Job Seach and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," working paper, Princeton University Industrial Relations Section, Janurary 2011.
Krueger, Alan B. "Supply and Demand: An Economist Goes to the Super Bowl," Milken Institute Review: A Journal of Economic Policy 3 (2001): 22-29.
Kermer, Deborah A et al. "Loss Aversion Is an Affective Forecasting Error," Psychological Science 17 (2006): 649-53.
Knutson, Brian et al. "Neural Antecedents of the Endowment Effect," Neuron 58 (2008): 814-22
Knutson, Brian and Greer, Stephanie M. "Anticipatory Affect: Neural Correlates and Consequences for Choice," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 363 (2008): 3771-86.
Levy, Moshe. "Loss Aversion and the Price of Risk," Quantitative Finance 10 (2010): 1009-22.
Bidwel, Miles O, Wang, Bruce X and Zona, J Douglas. "An Analysis of Asymmetric Demand Response to Price Changes: The Case of Local Telephone Calls," Journal of Regulatory Economics 8 (1995): 285-98.
Hardie, Bruce G S, Johnson, Eric J and Fader, Peter S. "Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice," Marketing Science 12 (1993): 378-94.
Camerer, Colin. "Three Cheers- Psychological, Theoretical, Empirical- for Loss Aversion," Journal of Marketing Research 42 (2005): 129-33.
Camerer, Colin F. "Prospect Theory in the Wild: Evidence from the Field," CHoices, Values, and Fames, ed Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2000), 288-300.
Genesove, David and Mayer Christopher. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," Quarterly Journal of Economics 116 (2001): 1233-60.
List, John A. "Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (2003): 47-71.
Knetsch, Jack L. "The Endowment Effect and Evidence of Nonreversible Indifference Curves," American Economic Review 79 (1989): 1277-84.
Plott, Charles R and Zeiler, Kathryn. "The Willingness to Pay-Willingness to Accept Gap, the 'Endowment Effect,' Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations," American Economic Review 96 (2005): 530-45.
Plott, Charles R and Zeiler, Kathryn. "Exchange Asymmetries Incorrectly Interpreted as Evidence of Endowment Effect Theory and Prospect Theory?" American Economic Review 97 (2007): 1449-66.
Bertrand, Marianne, Mullainathan, Sendhil and Shafir, Eldar. "Behavioral Economics and Marketing in Aid of Decision Making Among the Poor," Journal of Public Policy & Marketing 25 (2006): 8-23.
Bateman, Ian et al. "Testing Competing Models of Loss Aversion: An Adversarial Collaboration," Journal of Public Economics 89 (2005): 1561-80.

IV 28: Bad Events

Whalen, Paul J et al. "Human Amugdala Responsivity to Masked Fearful Eye Whites," Science 306 (2004): 2061.
De Martino, Benedetto, Camerer, Colin F and Adolphs, Ralph. "Amygdala Damage Eliminates Monetary Loss Aversion," PNAS 107 (2010): 3788-92.
LeDoux, Joseph. The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life (New York: Touchstone, 1996).
Fox, Elaine et al. "Facial Expressions of Emotion: Are Angry Faces Detected More Efficiently?" Cognition & Emotion 14 (2000): 61-92.
Hansen, Christine and Hansen, Ronald. "Finding the Face in the Crowd: An Anger Superiority Effect," Journal of Personality and Social Pcychology 54 (1988): 917-24.
Van Berkum, Jos J A et al. "Right or Wrong? The Brain's Fast Response to Morally Objectionable Statements," Psychological Science 20 (2009): 1092-99.
Rozin, Paul and Royzman, Edward B. "Negativity Bias, Negativity Dominance, and Contagion," Personality and Social Psychology Review 5 (2001): 296-320.
Baumeister, Roy F, Bratslavsky, Ellen, Finkenauer, Catrin and Vohs, Kathleen D. "Bad Is Strong Than Good," Review of General Psychology 5 (2001): 323.
Cabanac, Michel. "Pleasure: The Common Currency," Journal of Theoretical Biology 155 (1992): 173-200.
Heath, Chip, Larrick, Richard P and Wu, George. "Goals as Reference Points," Cognitive Psychology 38 (1999): 79-109.
Camerer, Colin, Babcock, Linda, Loewenstein, George and Thaler, Richard. "Labor Supply of New York City Cabdrivers: On Day at a Time," Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1997): 407-41.
Fehr, Ernst, Goette, Lorenz. "Do Workers Work More if Wages Are High? Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment," American Economic Review 97 (2007): 298-317.
Kahneman, Daniel. "Reference Points, Anchors, Norms, and Mixed Feelings," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 51 (1992): 296-312.
Alcock, John. Animal Behavior: An Evolutionary Approach (Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates, 2009), 278-84.
Zamir, Eyal. "Law and Psychology: The Crucial Role of Reference Points and Loss Aversion," working paper, Hebrew University, 2011.
Kahneman, Daniel, Knetsch, Jack L and Thaler, Richard H. "Fairness as a COnstraint on Profit Seeking: Entitlements in the Market," The American Economic Review 76 (1986): 728-41.
Fehr, Ernst, Goette, Lorenz and Zehnder, Christian. "A Behavioral Account of the Labor Market: The Role of Fairness Concerns," Annual Reivew of Economics 1 (2009): 355-84.
Anderson, Eric T and Simester, Duncan I. "Price Stickiness and Customer Antagonism," Quarterly Journal of Economics 125 (2010): 729-65.
de Quervain, Dominique et al. "The Neural Basis of Altruistic Punishment," Science 305 (2004): 1254-58.
Cohen, David and Knetsch, Jack L. "Judicial Choice and Disparities Between Measures of Economic Value," Osgoode Hall Law Review 30 (1992): 737-70.
Korobkin, Russell. "The Endowment Effect and Legal Analysis," Northwestern University Law Review 97 (2003): 1227-93.

IV 29: The Fourfold Pattern

Hsu, Ming, Krajbich, Ian, Zhao, Chen and Camerer Colin F. "Neural Response to Reward Anticipation under Risk Is Nonlinear in Probabilities," Journal of Neuroscience 29 (2009): 2231-37.
Viscusi, W Kip, Magat, Wesley A and Huber, Joel. "An Investigation of the Rationality of Consumer Valuations of Multiple Health Risks," RAND Journal of Economics 18 (1987): 465-79.
Williams, C Authur. "Attitudes Toward Speculative Risks as an Indicator of Attitudes Toward Pure Risks," Journal of Risk and Insurance 33 (1966): 577-86.
Raiffa, Howard. Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1968)
Guthrie, Chris. "Prospect Theory, Risk Preference, and the Law," Northwestern University Law Review 97 (2003): 1115-63.
Rachlinski, Jeffrey J. "Gains, Losses and the Psychology of Litigation," Southern California Law Review 70 (1996): 113-85.
Gross, Samuel R and Syverud, Kent D. "Getting to No: A Study of Settlement Negotiations and the Selection of Cases for Trial," Michigan Law Review 90 (1991): 319-93.
Guthrie, Chris. "Framing Frivolous Litigation: A Psychological Theory," University of Chicago Law Review 67 (2000): 163-216.

IV 30: Rare Events

Loewenstein, George F, Weber, Elke U, Hsee, Christopher K and Welch, Ned. "Risk as Feelings," Psychological Bulletin 127 (2001): 267-86.
Ibid. Sunstein, Cass R. "Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Caes, and Law," Yale Law Journal 112 (2002): 61-107.
Fox, Craig R. "Strength of Evidence, Judged Probability, and Choice Under Uncertainty," Cognitive Psychology 38 (1999): 167-89.
Miller, Dale T, Turnbull, William and McFarland, Cathy. "When a Coincidence Is Suspicious: The Role of Mental Simulation," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 57 (1989): 581-89.
Kirkpatrick, Lee A and Epstein, Seymour. "Cognitive-Experiential Self-Theory and Subjective Probability: Evidence for Two Conceptual Systems," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 63 (1992): 534-44.
Yamagishi, Kimihiko. "Whan a 12.86% Mortality Is More Dangerous Than 24.14%: Implications for Risk Communication," Applied Cognitive Psychology 11 (1997): 495-506.
Koehler, Jonathan J. "When Are People Persuaded by DNA Match Statistics?" Law and Human Behavior 25 (2001): 493-513.
Hertwig, Ralph, Barron, Greg, Weber, Elke U and Erev, Ido. "Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky CHoice," Psychological Science 15 (2004): 534-39.
Hertwig, Ralph and Erev, Ido. "The Description-Experience Gap in Risky CHoice," Trends in Cognitive Sciences 13 (2009): 517-23.
Fox, Craig R. "Information Asymmetry in Decision from Description Versus Decision from Experience," Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009): 317-25.

IV 31: Risk Policies

Langer, Thomas and Weber, Martin. "Myopic Prospect Theory vs Myopic Loss Aversion: How General Is the Phenomenon?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 56 (2005): 25-38.

IV 32: Keeping Score

Shefrin, Hersh and Statman, Meir. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance 40 (1985): 777-90.
Odean, Terrance. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?" Journal of Finance 53 (1998): 1775-98.
Dhar, Ravi and Zhu, Ning. "Up CLose and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science 52 (2006): 726-40.
Lehman, Darrin R, Lempert, Richard O and Nisbett, Richard E. "The Effects of Graduate Training on Reasoning: Formal Discipline and Thinking about Everyday-Life Events," American Psychologist 43 (1988): 431-42.
Zeelenberg, Marcel and Pieters, Rik. "A Theory of Regret Regulation 1.0," Journal of Consumer Psychology 17 (2007): 3-18.
Hart, Herbert L A and Honore, Tony. Causation in the Law (New York: Oxford University Press, 1985), 33.
Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos. "The Simulation Heuristic," Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, ed. Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1982), 160-73.
Landman, Janet. "Regret and Elation Following Action and Inaction: Affective Responses to Positive Versus Negative Outcomes," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 13 (1987): 524-36.
Gleicher, Faith et al. "The Role of Counterfactual Thinking in Judgment of Affect," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 16 (1990): 284-95.
Miller, Dale T and Taylor, Brian R. "Counterfactual Thought, Regret and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself," What Might Have Been: The Social Psychology of Counterfactual Thinking, ed Neal J Roese and James M Olson (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum, 1995), 305-31.
Zeelenberg, Marcel, van den Bos, Kees, van Jijk, Eric and Pieters, Rik. "The Inaction Effect in the Psychology of Regret," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 82 (2002): 314-27.
Simonson, Itamar. "The Influence of Anticipating Regret and Responsibility on Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research 19 (1992): 105-18.
Ng, Lilian and Wang, Qinghai. "Institutional Trading and the Turn-of-the-Year-Effect," Journal of Financial Economics 74 (2004): 343-66.
Johnson, Eric J, Gachter, Simon and Herrmann, Andreas. "Exploring the Nature of Loss Aversion," Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, University of Nottingham, Discussion Paper Series, 2006.
McCaffery, Edward J, Kahneman, Daniel and Spitzer, Matthew L. "Framing the Jury: Cognitive Perspectives on Pain and Suffering," Virginia Law Review 81 (1995): 1341-420.
Thaler, Richard H. "Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice," Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 39 (1980): 36-90.
Tetlock, Philip E et al. "The Psychology of the Unthinkable: Taboo Trade-Offs, Forbidden Base Rates, and Heretical Counterfactuals," Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 78 (2000): 853-70.
Sunstein, Cass R. The Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle (New York: Cambridge Univeristy Press, 2005.
Gilbert, Daniel T et al. "Looking Forward to Looking Backward: The Misprediction of Regret," Psychological Science 15 (2004): 346-50.

IV 33. Reversals

Miller, Dan T and McFarland, Cathy. "Counterfactual Thinking and Victim Compensation: A Test of Norm Theory," Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 12 (1986): 513-19.
Bazerman, Max H, Loewenstein, George F and White, Sally B. "Reversals of Preference in Allocation Decisions: Judging Alternatives Versus Judging Amoung Alternatives," Administrative Science Quarterly 37 (1992): 220-40.
Lichtenstein, Sarah and Slovic, Paul. "Reversals of Preference Between Bids and Choice in Gambling Decisions," Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1971): 46-55.
Lindman, Harold R. "Inconsistent Preferences Among Gambles," Journal of Experimental Psychology 89 (1971): 390-97.
Lichtenstein, Sarah and Slovic, Paul, eds. The Constuction of Preference (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006).
Grether, David M and Plott, Charles R. "Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversals Phenomenon," American Economic Review 69 (1979): 623-28.
Kuhn, Thomas S. "The Function of Measurement in Modern Physical Science," Isis 52 (1961): 161-93.
Kahneman, Daniel and Ritov, Ilana. "Determinants of Stated Willingness to Pay for Public Goals: A Study in the Headline Method," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 9 (1994): 5-38.
Sunstein, Cass R, Kahneman, Daniel, Schkade, David and Ritov, Ilana. "Predictably Incoherent Judgments," Stanford Law Review 54 (2002): 1190.

IV 34. Frames and Reality

Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel. "The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice," Science 211 (1981): 453-58.
McNeil, Barbara, Pauker, Stephen G, Sox Jr, Harold C and Tversky, Amos. "On the Elicitation of Preferences for Alternative Therapies," New England Journal of Medicine 306 (1982): 1259-62.
Schelling, Thomas. Choice and Consequence (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univeristy Press, 1985).
Larrick, Richard P and Soll, Jack B. "The MPG Illusion," Science 320 (2008): 1593-94.
Johnson, Eric J and Goldstein, Daniel. "Do Defaults Save Lives?" Science 302 (2003): 1338-39.

IV 35. Two Selves

Fisher, Irving. "Is 'Utility' the Most Suitable Term for the Concept It Is Used to Denote?" American Economic Review 8 (1918): 335.
Edgeworth, Francis. Mathematical Psychics (New York: Kelley, 1881).
Kahneman, Daniel, Wakker, Peter P, and Sarin, Rakesh. "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," Quarterly Journal of Economics 112 (1997): 375-405.
Kahneman, Daniel. "Experienced Utility and Objective Happiness: A Moment-Based Approach," and Kahneman and Tversky. "Evaluation by Movements: Past and Future," Choices, Values and Frames.
Redelmeier, Donald A and Kahneman, Daniel. "Patients' Memories of Painful Medical Treatments: Real-time and Retrospective Evaluations of Two Minimally Invasive Procedures," Pain 66 (1996): 3-8.
Kahneman, Daniel, Frederickson, Barbara L, Schreiber, Charles A and Redelmeier, Donald A. "When More Pain Is Preferred to Less: Adding a Better End," Psychological Science 4 (1993): 401-405.
Mowrer, Orval H, Solomon, L N. "Contiguity vs Drive-Reduction in Conditioned Fear: The Proximity and Abruptness of Drive Reduction," American Journal of Psychology 67 (1954): 15-25.
Shizgal, Peter. "On the Neural Computation of Utility: Implications from Studies of Brain Stimulation Reward," Well-Being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology, ed Daniel Kahneman, Edward Diener, and Norbert Schwarz (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1999): 500-24.

IV 36. Live as a Story

Rozin, Paul and Stellar, Jennifer. "Posthumous Events Affect Rated Quality and Happiness of Lives," Judgment and Decision Making 4 (2009): 273-79.
Diener, Ed, Wirtz, Derrick and Oishi, Shigehiro. "End Effects of Rated Life Quality: The James Dean Effect," Psychological Science 12 (2001): 124-28.

IV 37. Experienced Well-Being

Deaton, Angus. "Income, Health, and Well-Being Around the World: Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Economic Perspectives 22 (2008): 53-72.
Stone, Arthur A, Shiffman, Saul S and DeVries, Marten W. "Ecological Momentary Assessment Well-Being: The Foundations of Hedonic Psychology," in Kahneman, Diener and Schwarz, Well-Being 26-39.
Kahneman, Daniel et al. "A Survey Method for Characterizing Daily Life Experience: The Day Reconstruction Method," Science 306 (2004): 1776-80.
Kahneman, Daniel and Kruegar, Alan B. "Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-being," Journal of Economics Perspectives 20 (2006): 3-24.
Robinson, Michael D and Clore, Gerald L. "Belief and Feeling: Evidence for an Accessibility Model of Emotional Self-Report," Psychological Bulletin 128 (2002): 934-60.
Krueger, Alan B, ed. Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Accounts of Time Use and Well-Being (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2009).
Diener, Ed. "Most People Are Happy," Psychological Science 7 (1996): 181-85.
Kahneman, Daniel and Deaton, Angus. "High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but Not Emotional Well-Being," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (2010): 16489-93.
Smith, Dylan M, Langa, Kenneth M, Kabeto, Mohammed U and Ubel, Peter. "Health, Wealth, and Happiness: Financial Resources Buffer Subjective Well-Being After the Onset of a Disability," Psychological Science 16 (2005): 663-66.
Quoidbach, Jordi, Dunn, Elizabeth W, Petrides, K V and Mikolajczak, Moira. "Money Giveth, Money Taketh Away: The Dual Effect of Wealth on Happiness," Psychological Science 21 (2010): 759-63

IV 38. Thinking About Life

Clark, Andrew E, Diener, Ed and Georgellis, Yannis. "Lags and Leads in Life Satisfaction: A Test of the Baseline Hypothesis." Paper presented at the German Socio-Economic Panel Conference, Berlin, Germany, 2001.
Gilbert, Daniel T and Wilson, Timothy D. "Why the Brian Talks to Itself: Sources of Error in Emotional Prediction," Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 364 (2009): 1335-41.
Schwarz, Norbert. "Mood as Information: On the Impact of Moods on the Evaluation of One's Life," (Heidelberg: Springer Verlag, 1987)
Schwarz, Norbert and Strack, Fritz. "Reports of Subjective Well-Being: Judgemental Processes and Their Methodological Implications," Kahneman, Diener, and Schwarz, Well Being 61-84.
Bowen, William G and Bok, Derek Curtis. The Shape of the River: Long-Term Consequences of Considering Race in College and University Admissions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998)
Nickerson, Carol, Schwarz, Norbert and Diener, Ed. "Financial Aspirations, Financial Success and Overall Life Satisfaction: Who? and How?" Journal of Happiness Studies 8 (2007): 467-515.
Astin, Alexander, King, M R and Richardson, G T. "The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall 1976," Cooperative Institutional Research Program of the American Council on Education and the University of California at Los Angeles, Graduate School of Education, Laboratory for Research in Higher Education, 1976.
Schwarz, Norbert, Kahneman, Daniel and Xu, Jing. "Global and Episodic Reports of Hedonic Experience," R. Belli, D. Alwin and F. Stafford (eds), Using Calendar and Diary Methods in Life Events Research (Newbury Park, CA: Sage), 157-74.
Wortman, Camille and Silver, Roxane. "Coping with Irrevocable Loss, Cataclysms, Crises, and Catastrophes: Psychology in Action," American Psychological Association, Master Lecture Series 6 (1987): 189-235.
Smith, Dylan et al. "Misremembering Colostomies? Former Patients Give Lower Utility Ratings than Do Current Patients," Health Psychology 25 (2006): 688-95.
Loewenstrin, George and Ubel, Peter A. "Hedonic Adaptation and the Role of Decision and Experience Utility in Public Policy," Journal of Public Economics 92 (2008): 1795-1810.
Gilbert, Daniel and Wilson, Timothy D. "Miswanting: Some Problems in Affective Forecasting," Feeling and Thinking: The Role of Affect in Social Cognition, ed Joseph P Forgas (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000), 178-97.

IV Conclusions

Dolan, Paul and Kahneman, Daniel. "Interpretations of Utility and Their Implications for the Valuation of Health," Economic Journal 118 (2008): 215-234.
Layard, Lord Richard. Happiness: Lessons from a New Science (2005)
Bok, Derek. The Politics of Happiness: What Government Can Learn form the New Research on Well-Being (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2010)
Diener, Ed, Lucus, Richard, Schmimmack, Ulrich and Helliwell, John F. Well-Being for Public Policy (New York: Oxford University Press, 2009)
Krueger, Alan B, ed. Measuring the Subjective Well-Being of Nations: National Account of Time Use and Well-Being (Chicago: Univeristy of Chicago Press, 2009)
Stiglitz, Joseph E, Sen, Amartya and Fitoussi, Jean-Paul. Report of the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress
Dolan, Paul, Layard, Richard and Metcalfe, Robert. Measuring Subjective Well-being for Public Policy: Reccomendations on Measures (London: Office for National Statistics, 2011)
Becker, Gary S and Murphy, Kevin M. "A Theory of Rational Addiction," Journal of Political Economics 96 (1988): 675-700.
Thaler, Richard H and Sunstein, Cass R. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness (New York: Yale University Press, 2008)
Kahneman, Daniel, Lovallo, Dan and Sibony, Oliver. "The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision..." Harvard Business Review 89 (2011): 50-60.
Heath, Chip, Larrick, Richard P and Klayman, Joshua. "Cognitive Repairs: How Organizational Practices Can Compensate for Individual Shortcomings," Research in Organizational Behavior 20 (1998): 1-37.

V Notes

V Introduction

(3) Hope for Informed Gossip
(4) Language to describe errors in judgement

Origins

(5) "We were far too willing to believe research findings based on inadequate evidence and prone to collect too few observations in our own research."
(6) research style - create questions and examine their intuitive answers.
(6a) "participants in our experiments ignored the relevant statistical facts and relied exclusively on resemblance."

Where We Are Now

(10) Intuitive Judgements can both interesting in accuracy and create dubious errors
(11) Intuitive recognition of experts
(12) "When the question is difficult and a skilled solution is not available, intuition still has a shot: an answer may come to mind quickly - but it is not an answer to the original question."

What Comes Next

Part 1: Elements of two-systems approach to judgement and choice
Part 2: Update to the study of judgement heuristics and asks - Why is it so difficult for us to think statistically
Part 3: Explores excessive confidence in what we believe to know, and inability to acknowledge extent of ignorance
Part 4: Economics and nature of decision making - rational?
Part 5: research in the distinction between two selves - experiencing and remembering
Conclusion: implications of three distinctions drawn in the book
Appendix A: Paper reprint - Judgement under uncertainty
Appendix B: Paper reprint - Prospect theory as well as framing effects

V Part I. Two Systems

V 1. The Characters of the Story

(20) terms by Keith Stanovich and Richard West
- System 1 - automatic and quick
- System 2- effortful mental activities
(22) System 2 has limited capacity
(24) System 2 takes a lot of overhead
(24a) "we can be blind to the obvious, and we are also blind to our blindness"

Plot Synopsis

(25) S2 takes over when S1 can't handle
(25) S1 has biases- systematic errors

Conflict

(26) Conflict between reaction and intention to control
(26a) S2 in charge of self control

Illusions

(27) S1 falls for it
(28) cognitive illusion
(28) easier to see other's mistakes

Useful Fictions

(29) S2- dialiated pupils and accelerated heart rate
(29a) S1 and S2 are shorthand/simplification

Speaking of System 1 and System 2

V 2. Attention and Effort

(31) S2 not the hero, but has some specialties

Mental Effort

(32) Eckhard Hess Scientific American article - pupil dialation
(33) When person gives up or completes pupil contracts
(34) Cognitive illusion can happen during mental sprint (gorilla)
(35) S1 takes over in emergencies
(35a) DK's Attention and Effort about pupil learnings
(36) S2 has better memory and can follow rules and can combine concepts
(37) S2 Attention control

Speaking of Attention and Effort

V 3. The Lazy Controller

(39) S2 has natural speed
(40) S2 in flow doesn't follow rules of exerting effort - something about self control

The Busy and Depleted System 2

(41) cognitively busy tends to make more selfish, use sexist language and make superficial judgements
(41a) ego depletion
(43) cognitive load consumes blood glucose - S2 has sweet tooth

The Lazy System 2

(44) S2 checks S1's work
(45) tendency to be overconfident in S1's answer (intuition)
(46) S1 error- missing key details
(46a) memory is a function of S1

Intelligence, Control, Rationality

(47) video games improve executive function
(48) S2 is lazier for different people

Speaking of Control

V 4. The Associative Machine

(50) juxtaposition of ideas

The Marvels of Priming

(52) priming effects-related words have physiological implications

Primes That Guide Us

(55) support for school funding higher when polls in schools
(55a) money primed for more self-reliance and selfishness
(57) priming happens to S1 and S2 along for the ride

Speaking of Priming

V 5. Cognitive Ease

(59) s1 has ongoing monitors (danger, etc)
(59) s1 involves s2 when passes lazy threshold to act

Illusions of Remembering

(61) memory primed by frequency

Illusions of Truth

(62) S1-impression -> s2 judgement

How to Write a Persuasive Message

(63) pretenstious language is taken as a sign of poor intelligence and low credibility
(63a) Sources with easy to pronounce names are deemed more reliable

Strain and Effort

(65) Initial Strain (reading) reduced mistakes

The Pleasure of Cognitive Ease

(66) Cognitive Ease tied to good feelings
(66a) S1 Repeated exposure > fondness = mere exposure effect

Ease, Mood and Intuition

(68) people recognize RAT triads quickly
(68a) happy = increased effective S1 and less likely S2 take over

Speaking of Cognitive Ease

V 6. Norms, Surprises, and Causes

Assessing Normality

(71) S1 maintains model of normal
(72) coincidence
(73) very good at violations of normality

Seeing Causes and Intentions

(74) S1 automatically creates associations
(76) S1 can make any story
(77) The separation of physical and intentional world lead to religion

Speaking of Norms and Causes

V 7. A Machine for Jumping to Conclusions

(79) S1 doesn't understand stakes?

Neglect of Ambiguity and Suppression of Doubt

(80) when uncertain, S1 bets on an answer from experience

A Bias to Believe and Confirm

(80) D. Gilbert - Step 1 to understanding something is for S1 to try and believe it, then for S2 to disprove it
(81) When S2 is otherwise engaged, S1's gullibility a problem.

Exaggerated Emotional Coherence (Halo Effect)

(81) Halo Effect - common bias that if you agree other traits are more agreeable (voice of politician)
(83) Halo Effect in grading - homogeneous bias
(84) for error to trend to zero, independence is necessary.
(85) First speaker too much weight to opinion

What You See Is All There Is (WYSIATI)

(85) S1 can't deal with gaps in information. Good school means good person doesn't suspend judgement until more is known.
(86) S2 is influenced by judgements of S1 (no matter how wrong)

Speaking of Jumping to Conclusions

V 8. How Judgments Happen

Basic Assessments

(90) S1 judges dominance and trustworthiness at glance, but not reliable.
(91) if S2 doesn't form an opinion, we fall back to S1

Sets and Prototypes

(92) S1 can estimate norm well (such as estimate avg)
(93) S1 ignores quantity

Intensity Matching

(94) S1 can intensity match and apply to other contexts

The Mental Shotgun

(95) S1 can multitask where S2 is single threaded

Speaking of Judgment

V 9. Answering an Easier Question

Substituting Questions

(97) if a question is hard, S1 will substitute w/ an easier question
(97a) heuristic - procedure to answer a question
(99) intensity matching + substitution = useful, but cautionary

The 3-D Heuristic

(101) projection of dimension in image introduces bias

The Mood Heuristic for Happiness

(102) by changing the order of questions, you can evoke substitution - remind of something first

The Affect Heuristic

(103) Likes/dislikes determine beliefs about world (if you like motorcycles, you discount risk)
(103a) S2 is responsible for self criticism

Speaking of Substitution and Heuristics

Characteristics of System 1 (below list verbatim)

generates impressions, feelings, and inclinations; when endorsed by System 2 these become beliefts, attitudes, and intentions
operates automatically and quickly, with little or no effort, and no sense of voluntary control
can be programmed by System 2 to mobilize attention when a particular pattern is detected (search)
executes skilled responses and generates skilled intuitions, after adequate training
creates a coherent pattern of activated ideas in associative memory
links a sense of cognitive ease to illusions of truth, pleasant feelings, and reduced vigilance
distinguishes the surprising from the normal
infers and invents causes and intentions
neglects ambiguity and supresses doubt
is biased to believe and confirm
exaggerates emotional consistency (halo effect)
focuses on existsing evidence and ignores absent evidence (WYSIATI)
generates a limited set of basic assessments
represents sets by norms and prototypes, does not integrate
matches intensities across scales (eg size to loudness)
computes more than intended (mental shotgun)
sometimes substitutes an easier question for a difficult one (heuristics)
is more sensitive to changes than to states (prospect theory)*
overweights low probabilities*
shows diminishing sensitivity to quantity (psychophysics)*
responds more strongly to losses than to gains (loss aversion)*
frames desicions problems narrowly, in isolation from one another*

V Part II. Hueristics and Biases

V 10. The Law of Small Numbers

(110) S1 is inept when faced with "statistical" facts
(110a) smaller sample sizes yield higher extreme outcomes

The Law of Small Numbers

(112) Risk of sampling error has a formula, but must use judgment (confidence interval)
(113) Large number of studies are impacted by this error